Heres where the race stands with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates clintons strongest states are farthest left trumps farthest right and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award. Non college educated whites skew older and rural and will be 46 percent of eligible voters in 2016 down from 49 percent in 2012.
Final Election Update There S A Wide Range Of Outcomes And Most
The term can also be used to describe a state whose electoral votes have a high probability of being the deciding factor in a presidential election.
2016 swing state fivethirtyeight. In the swing states however the numbers look more like the final results from 2012 when obama beat romney by 37 percentage points nationally and by slightly more than that in the swing states. Trump won dark red states by more than 8 medium red states by 4 to 8 and light red states by less than 4. The short answer is probably not at least in 2016.
How much each state matters. Nate silvers fivethirtyeight uses statistical analysis hard numbers to tell compelling stories about elections politics sports science economics and lifestyle. Filed under 2016 election.
State races by 2016 presidential election margin. A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the white house. A users guide to fivethirtyeights 2016 general election forecast by nate silver.
Specifically trump beat his fivethirtyeight adjusted polling average by a net of 27 percentage points in the average state weighted by the states likelihood of being the tipping point state. The winding path to 270 electoral votes. Two measures help capture how important a state and its voters will be in determining the next president.
Clinton won dark blue states by more than 8 medium blue states by 4 to 8 and light blue states by less than 4. These new maps did shift the electoral college vote margin by as much as 38 votes but since president trump won by more than 70 votes it wasnt enough to swing the election to clinton. Swing states are those in which neither major political party holds a lock on the outcome of presidential elections.
Nonetheless they still factor heavily in key states including iowa nevada ohio pennsylvania and wisconsin. Tipping point chance is the probability that a state will provide the decisive vote in the electoral college. Of the 13 maps we tested none of them flipped the outcome of the last presidential election.
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